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Are We Really in a Doom-Loop?

Inflation, Interest Rates, Stock Markets, U.S. National Income vs. Home Prices

The new inflation report for August was released yesterday, with the general CPI reading ticking up,
and the Core-CPI reading ticking down. Neither bond markets nor stock markets have, so far, responded dramatically.

Chart of monthly CPI and core inflation, with CPI falling from its 2022 peak to 3.7% in August 2023.

Interest rates: Daily and weekly averages.

Chart of daily 30-year fixed mortgage rates from February to September 2023, rising above 7% in late summer.

Chart of 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rates from 2018 to September 2023, rising above 7% in 2023.

Chart of 30-year mortgage rates from 2022 to September 2023, climbing from about 3.2% to 7.18%.

Stock markets:

Chart comparing 2023 year-to-date Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains, ending at +33% and +17%.

I created a summary slide regarding all the over the top "doom-loop" dominating media coverage in the last couple months, if you find it of any use.

Article excerpt about the Bay Area “doom loop,” beneath a view of the Golden Gate Bridge and San Francisco skyline.

The Census just released national household income figures for 2022 (which ticked down slightly), and I charted the difference in appreciation between U.S. median home prices and U.S. median household income. County 2022 household income figures are supposed to be released very soon, and then I'll chart these dynamics for Bay Area Counties.

Chart comparing U.S. median home prices and household income changes from 1989 to 2022.

Are We Really in a Doom-Loop?

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