Economic Outlook | COVID Vaccine | U.S. Housing Market | Macro-Economy
The latest on the economic and real estate outlook, COVID vaccine anticipated availability and macroeconomic drivers.
By Deborah Cole
This just in about the economic outlook and COVID vaccine timing from Compass group CEO Mark McLaughlin:
Sunday afternoon, I read a Bank of America Securities US Economic Viewpoint focused on the US housing market and I listened to the Goldman Sachs weekly briefing for our macro-economy.
The Bank of America Securities writing was very real estate focused.
Bank of America Viewpoint
US home sales at +5.5 million in 2021
US home price appreciation 2021 at 4 percent
Fed to maintain interest rate policy for 3 years serving mortgages in the +/- percent range
Key Drivers are:
Q1 2021 CARES stimulus minimum at $750B – $1T
2021 job creation following 100 million COVID vaccines “in market.”
The Goldman Sachs podcast was focused on the US election results and the COVID vaccine.
Goldman Sachs Viewpoint
Strong confidence that the early December 2020 Electoral College results will cause Trump to activate “normal” POTUS and related transitions.
75 percent degree of confidence that Georgia runoff will go Republican creating governmental balance vs. Blue Wave.
FDA vaccine approvals expected in early December for Pfizer and Moderna.
Significant confidence in the US supply chain to deliver vaccine doses complete with needles and syringes.
December 2020 to February 2021 doses to be in the tens of millions per month.
1H 2021 doses in the US could reach to 200 million and create herd immunity.
