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Economic Outlook | COVID Vaccine | U.S. Housing Market | Macro-Economy

 
By Deborah Cole
 
This just in about the economic outlook and COVID vaccine timing from Compass group CEO Mark McLaughlin:
 
Sunday afternoon, I read a Bank of America Securities US Economic Viewpoint focused on the US housing market and I listened to the Goldman Sachs weekly briefing for our macro-economy.
 
The Bank of America Securities writing was very real estate focused.

Bank of America Viewpoint 

  • US home sales at +5.5 million in 2021
  • US home price appreciation 2021 at 4 percent 
  • Fed to maintain interest rate policy for 3 years serving mortgages in the +/- percent range
  • Key Drivers are:
    • Q1 2021 CARES stimulus minimum at $750B – $1T
    • 2021 job creation following 100 million COVID vaccines “in market.”
The Goldman Sachs podcast was focused on the US election results and the COVID vaccine.
 
Goldman Sachs Viewpoint

  • Strong confidence that the early December 2020 Electoral College results will cause Trump to activate “normal” POTUS and related transitions.
  • 75 percent degree of confidence that Georgia runoff will go Republican creating governmental balance vs. Blue Wave.
  • FDA vaccine approvals expected in early December for Pfizer and Moderna.
  • Significant confidence in the US supply chain to deliver vaccine doses complete with needles and syringes.
  • December 2020 to February 2021 doses to be in the tens of millions per month.
  • 1H 2021 doses in the US could reach to 200 million and create herd immunity.



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