Facts, Rates, and Inspiration!

By Fif Ghobadian

Orgin Point

SVP of Mortgage Lending
[email protected]
OriginPoint.com/FifGhobadian

Facts, Rates, and Inspiration!

Summary:

• Interesting year over year metrics
• NY Fed President expects the economy to get to neutral
• Cathy Wood claims that we are already in a recession
• Inventories are explosively high
• SF, Oakland, Hayward inventory are up over 200%
• Mortgage Industry that expanded during the pandemic is shrinking due to massive layoffs
• Current rates are normal and there are good loan options 

Facts:

Mortgage Bankers Association released their application data last week and below are the year over year results:
Purchases are down 24%
Refinances are down 80%
Interest rates are 2.625% higher at a cost of 1 point

A few other year over year interesting statistics:
Rents increased by 14.1%
Fed’s measure of inflation – Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increase over 6%
Core rate which strips out food and energy is up close to 5%
Home prices up 20.4%
(MBS Highway 6/29/2022 and 6/28/2022)

NY Federal President, John Williams, said he does expect a slow down in the economy but does not see a recession. He said he wants the Fed to increase the Fed Fund rate from the current 1.5% to between 3 and 3.5%, and he expects inflation to decline to 3% by the end of the year, which would mean we are at “neutral”.  (MBS Highway 6/28/2022)

Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, on the other hand, believes we are already in a recession.  She believes that inventories are a huge issue, with the increase the largest she has seen in her 45 year career. She believes that the inflation we have seen is setting us up for deflation(where prices will drop) (MBS Highway 6/28/2022) As a point of reference, In January 2022, there were 2009 units.of housing for Sale in San Francisco, Oakland and Hayward CA. In May 2022, there were 4587 units.  (Fred 6/2/2022) 

While many employees in the battered crypto sector are dreading that 4pm calendar invite on a Friday, the same can probably be said for people working in the mortgage industry. A cooling housing market has everyone from traditional mortgage lenders to hot startups dumping staff faster than you can say “market conditions.”

Last week, JPMorgan laid off 1,000 employees from its home-lending division, according to Bloomberg.
Wells Fargo cut hundreds of employees in April after its mortgage revenue fell 33% from Q1 2021 to 2022, according to Insider.

Record-low interest rates during the pandemic helped fuel a wildly competitive housing market—prompting mortgage lenders to staff up in order to handle the surge in demand for home financing.

From March 2021 to February 2022, the number of mortgage and nonmortgage loan brokers jumped 8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1.8 million people were working in real estate last month—the greatest number on record.
Better.com, the mortgage startup infamous for firing people en masse over Zoom, hired nearly 7,000 employees during the pandemic. But after three rounds of layoffs in the last six months, the company, which had ~10,000 employees in December, now has less than 5,000.
(morningbrew.com 6/29/2022)

Rates:

It is a fact that mortgage rates have gone up drastically but the current rates are “normal”. The rates in the 2-3% range are an anomaly. and this is the time where creativity and education is paramount.

If you are considering a refinance, or a purchase, there are various options to expand your purchase price range or reduce your monthly payments. In order to overcome the rate increase obstacle, below is a list of options:

To reduce your monthly payments – consider the 7 yr ARM or the 7 yr ARM interest only  - below is a sample that illustrates the options
For an $800,000 loan on a $1M purchase price (credit score over 740, single family residence, primary residence, debt to income under 45%, based on rates of 6/29/2022) – 30 yr fixed @5.25% = $4418/mo
The 7 yr ARM is @ 4.875% = $4234/mo - $184/mo lower
The 7 yr ARM int only @ 5%= $3333/mo - $1085/mo lower
There are lenders that allow the debt to income ratios up to 50% even for jumbo loans
There are lenders that will work with one year tax returns
In order to reduce your monthly payments when you want to put less than 20% down, we can break the loan into two loans and the interest only payment on the second loan reduces the total monthly payments.

There are options! 

Inspiration:

“Trust is not built in big sweeping moments. Its built in tiny moments every day” Brene Brown
I listened to Brene Brown’s podcast on the anatomy of trust. Its 20 minutes but its worth it.

https://brenebrown.com/videos/anatomy-trust-video/

You will learn one thing that is illuminating. Trust!